The AUDUSD broke below the 100 hour MA for the first time since March 16, and the break sent the pair from 0.7491 to the session low at 0.7466.
That will was just above the swing lows from Thursday’s trade at 0.74656. There are now 3 lows on the hourly chart at that level over the last 3 trading days. That is good enough to increase the levels importance in the short term.
The inability to move below that swing low level, sent the pair back to the upside. The price did extend back above its 100 hour moving average. However after trading above and below the moving average over four consecutive hourly bars, the price seems to be dipping back to the downside.
Hopes for a cease-fire in the Russian/Ukraine war is helping to push commodities down and with it the AUDUSD. Gold is now down over $38. Crude oil is down over $10.75 now.
Having said that, the price is not running. What would be the targets on more downside?
On the downside, move below the 0.74656 level, and the sellers should have more confidence to start to attack the next targets including
- 0.74497 swing lows from Wednesday’s trade last week and
- The rising 200 hour moving average at 0.74327.
The price has not traded below its 200 hour moving average since March 17.
Conversely, a move back above the 100 hour moving average at 0.74948 would not be what shorts looking for more downside would like to see again.
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