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Home ANALYSIS

AUDUSD backs away from 100 hour MA after correction of move lower today runs out of steam

A.R Chowdhury by A.R Chowdhury
March 28, 2022
Reading Time: 6 mins read
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AUDUSD backs away from 100 hour MA after correction of move lower today runs out of steam

AUDUSD

AUDUSD has moved back below its 100 hour moving average

The  AUDUSD 
AUD/USD

The AUD/USD is the currency pair encompassing the Australian dollar of the Commonwealth of Australia (symbol $, code AUD), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one Australian dollar. For example, when the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7500, it means 1 Australian dollar is equivalent to 0.75 US dollars. The Australian dollar (AUD) is the world’s fifth most traded currency, whilst the US Dollar (USD) is the world’s most traded currency, resulting in a very liquid pair, with tight spreads, often staying within the 1 pip to 3 pip spread range on most forex brokers. AUD/USD Popular Among Various Types of TradersA lot of traders consider the AUD/USD to perhaps be the most consistent currency pair with respect to swing trading, as it has often moved in steadfast cycles.Having said that, every pair presents its own challenges for traders.The AUD/USD is very popular with swing traders, with the four-hour timeframe being, historically at least, more dependable than others. Historically the AUD/USD is influenced by interest rate differentials, commodity prices, government credit ratings, and overall sentiment and speculation.

The AUD/USD is the currency pair encompassing the Australian dollar of the Commonwealth of Australia (symbol $, code AUD), and the dollar of the United States of America (symbol $, code USD). The pair’s rate indicates how many US dollars are needed in order to purchase one Australian dollar. For example, when the AUD/USD is trading at 0.7500, it means 1 Australian dollar is equivalent to 0.75 US dollars. The Australian dollar (AUD) is the world’s fifth most traded currency, whilst the US Dollar (USD) is the world’s most traded currency, resulting in a very liquid pair, with tight spreads, often staying within the 1 pip to 3 pip spread range on most forex brokers. AUD/USD Popular Among Various Types of TradersA lot of traders consider the AUD/USD to perhaps be the most consistent currency pair with respect to swing trading, as it has often moved in steadfast cycles.Having said that, every pair presents its own challenges for traders.The AUD/USD is very popular with swing traders, with the four-hour timeframe being, historically at least, more dependable than others. Historically the AUD/USD is influenced by interest rate differentials, commodity prices, government credit ratings, and overall sentiment and speculation.
Read this Term
broke below the 100 hour MA for the first time since March 16, and the break sent the pair from 0.7491 to the session low at 0.7466.

That will was just above the swing lows from Thursday’s trade at 0.74656. There are now 3 lows on the hourly chart at that level over the last 3 trading days. That is good enough to increase the levels importance in the short term.

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The inability to move below that swing low level, sent the pair back to the upside. The price did extend back above its 100 hour moving average. However after trading above and below the moving average over four consecutive hourly bars, the price seems to be dipping back to the downside.

Hopes for a cease-fire in the Russian/Ukraine war is helping to push commodities down and with it the AUDUSD. Gold is now down over $38.  Crude oil 
Crude Oil

Crude oil is the most popular tradable instrument in the energy sector, offering exposure to global market conditions, geopolitical risk, and economics. The instrument is strategically relied upon and situated in the global economy. Crude oil has proven to be a unique option for traders given volatility and the efficacy of both swing trading and longer-term strategies. Despite its popularity, crude oil is a very complex investing instrument, given the litany of fluctuations in oil prices, risk, and impact of politics stemming from OPEC. Short for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC operates as an intergovernmental organization of 13 countries, helping set and dictate the global oil market.How to Trade Crude Oil Crude oil is most commonly traded as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) or through other instruments with exposure to it. This includes energy stocks, the USD/CAD, and other investing options. Crude oil itself is traded across a duality of markets, including the West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) and Brent crude. Brent is the more relied upon index in recent years, while WTI is more heavily traded across futures trading at the time of writing. Other than geopolitical events or decisions by OPEC, crude oil can move due to a variety of different ways.  The most basic is through simple supply and demand, which is affected by global output. Increased industrial output, economic prosperity, and other factors all play a role in crude prices. By extension, recessions, lockdowns, or other stifling factors can also influence crude prices. For example, an oversupply or mitigated demand due to the aforementioned factors would result in lower crude prices. This is due to traders selling crude oil futures or other instruments.  Should demand rise or production plateau, traders will bid increasingly on crude, whereby driving prices up.

Crude oil is the most popular tradable instrument in the energy sector, offering exposure to global market conditions, geopolitical risk, and economics. The instrument is strategically relied upon and situated in the global economy. Crude oil has proven to be a unique option for traders given volatility and the efficacy of both swing trading and longer-term strategies. Despite its popularity, crude oil is a very complex investing instrument, given the litany of fluctuations in oil prices, risk, and impact of politics stemming from OPEC. Short for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC operates as an intergovernmental organization of 13 countries, helping set and dictate the global oil market.How to Trade Crude Oil Crude oil is most commonly traded as an exchange-traded fund (ETF) or through other instruments with exposure to it. This includes energy stocks, the USD/CAD, and other investing options. Crude oil itself is traded across a duality of markets, including the West Texas Intermediate Crude (WTI) and Brent crude. Brent is the more relied upon index in recent years, while WTI is more heavily traded across futures trading at the time of writing. Other than geopolitical events or decisions by OPEC, crude oil can move due to a variety of different ways.  The most basic is through simple supply and demand, which is affected by global output. Increased industrial output, economic prosperity, and other factors all play a role in crude prices. By extension, recessions, lockdowns, or other stifling factors can also influence crude prices. For example, an oversupply or mitigated demand due to the aforementioned factors would result in lower crude prices. This is due to traders selling crude oil futures or other instruments.  Should demand rise or production plateau, traders will bid increasingly on crude, whereby driving prices up.
Read this Term
is down over $10.75 now.

Having said that, the price is not running. What would be the targets on more downside?

On the downside, move below the 0.74656 level, and the sellers should have more confidence to start to attack the next targets including

  • 0.74497 swing lows from Wednesday’s trade last week and
  • The rising 200 hour moving average at 0.74327.

The price has not traded below its 200 hour moving average since March 17.

Conversely, a move back above the 100 hour moving average at 0.74948 would not be what shorts looking for more downside would like to see again.

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A.R Chowdhury

A.R Chowdhury

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